Revisiting the theme of intellectual humility, Marks argues that macro forecasting remains a futile exercise. He suggests focusing on what is knowable: the current stage of the cycle and asset pricing.

This memo focuses on fundamental analysis and understanding the structural components of corporate earnings. Marks argues that top-line growth often masks deteriorating underlying quality and unsustainable capital structures.

A retrospective compilation of Marks' most enduring principles. He reinforces the importance of cycle awareness, risk control, and the necessity of a contrarian mindset for achieving superior long-term returns.

Marks explores the mathematical relationship between interest rates, cash flows, and intrinsic value. He argues that in a higher-rate environment, the margin of safety becomes the investor's most critical tool.

Marks argues that asset allocation should be driven by long-term return goals and risk tolerance rather than short-term market timing or complex financial engineering.

Argues that avoiding all risk guarantees subpar returns, and that successful investing requires taking intelligent risks where the potential reward justifies the uncertainty.

Emphasizes the importance of intellectual humility and the recognition that the future is inherently unpredictable, advocating for a probabilistic approach to investing.

Compares the strategies of seeking home runs versus avoiding strikeouts, concluding that for most, a focus on consistency and loss avoidance is superior.

Expands on the shift from a low-return, low-rate environment to one where credit and fixed income offer attractive, equity-like returns without equity-like risk.

Marks argues that the era of declining interest rates (1980–2021) produced an unprecedented tailwind for asset prices and that its reversal represents a fundamental "sea change" in the investment landscape. The rules that worked for 40 years may not work going forward.

Marks explores the necessity of second-level thinking and contrarianism. He argues that to achieve superior performance, an investor must be willing to look wrong for a period while holding a non-consensus view.

Marks argues against the common urge to sell winners prematurely. He posits that the best way to achieve exceptional wealth is to hold great assets and let them compound, rather than attempting to time exits.

Marks critiques the reliance on macroeconomic forecasting, arguing that most investors lack an edge in predicting broad economic shifts. He advocates for focusing on micro-level fundamentals and the current price-to-value relationship.

Marks discusses the difficulty of macro forecasting and the importance of focusing on the 'knowable.' He argues that while macro factors matter, they are rarely a source of sustainable competitive advantage.

Marks bridges the growth-versus-value investing debate, arguing that the distinction is largely false. The real question is not growth or value but whether you understand the business well enough to assess its worth—and whether you're paying a fair price.

Examines the futility of macro forecasting during a crisis, suggesting that investors should focus on the present price relative to intrinsic value instead.

Marks explores the shift in value investing, suggesting that traditional metrics must evolve to account for intangible assets and the dominance of technology companies.

Critiques the limitations of quantitative analysis during a pandemic, emphasizing that data alone cannot capture the qualitative shifts in human behavior and economic structure.

Marks compares investing to sports betting and poker, emphasizing that success comes from understanding the relationship between price and value while correctly assessing the probability of various future outcomes.

Marks discusses the social and political challenges facing capitalism, arguing that for the system to remain viable, it must address inequality and ensure that economic growth benefits a broader segment of society.

Marks evaluates the rise of passive investing, algorithms, and AI, questioning whether quantitative models can replicate the qualitative 'second-level thinking' required to achieve superior investment performance.

Using sports analogies, Marks emphasizes the importance of defensive investing, avoiding losers, and the role of luck versus skill in achieving long-term success.

Marks discusses second-level thinking, explaining that superior investment results require a more complex and contrarian thought process than the average market participant.

This memo expands on the definition of risk, asserting that risk is the possibility of permanent capital loss rather than just price volatility.

Marks explains why conventional thinking can never produce unconventional results, and why the path to great investing requires not just being different but being different and right—a combination that demands both insight and the courage to act on it.

Marks explores the significant role of randomness and luck in investment outcomes, cautioning against attributing all success to skill or foresight.

Marks revisits the core concept of risk, arguing that the greatest risk often comes from high prices and excessive optimism rather than bad news.

A follow-up to his 2006 memo, Marks argues that achieving superior performance requires the courage to be different and the willingness to look wrong.

Buffett dismantles the academic definition of risk as volatility (beta), arguing that the real risk is permanent loss of purchasing power. He explains why stock price drops should excite, not frighten, the true investor.

Buffett uses a Nebraska farm and New York real estate purchase to explain why focusing on productive assets—not daily price fluctuations—is the key to building lasting wealth. A masterclass in thinking like an owner, not a trader.

Outlines Oaktree's core investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of consistency, risk control, and avoiding large losses.

Provides a framework for evaluating investment managers, distinguishing between genuine skill and luck in historical performance records.

Addresses the difficulty of investing when macro outcomes are unpredictable, emphasizing risk control over aggressive forecasting in volatile times.

Marks discusses the dilemma of being cautious during a recovery. He argues that while being defensive might lead to underperformance in a rally, it protects against permanent loss if the recovery is fragile.

Marks explores the merits and pitfalls of investing in gold, concluding that while it serves as a hedge against uncertainty, it lacks intrinsic value and cash flow, making it a speculative asset.

Using the hemline theory as a metaphor, Marks discusses how investment styles go in and out of fashion, urging investors to focus on fundamentals rather than temporary market trends.

Marks outlines the fundamental principles that guide Oaktree's investment philosophy, focusing on risk control, consistency, and the avoidance of macro forecasting to achieve superior long-term results.

Marks encourages investors to look past short-term volatility and focus on the long-term intrinsic value of assets, especially when market panic creates significant buying opportunities for patient capital.

Advises maintaining a long-term perspective and focusing on asset quality during periods of extreme market uncertainty and volatility following initial financial shocks.

Marks discusses the necessity of having a contingency plan and the importance of margin of safety when the primary investment thesis fails due to unforeseen and extreme macroeconomic events.

Marks emphasizes the futility of macro forecasting and the importance of admitting ignorance about the future, advocating for a disciplined approach to risk rather than relying on predictions.

Using bird metaphors, Marks categorizes investor types to illustrate how psychological biases and herd behavior drive market cycles and create widespread mispricing.

In the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, Buffett published a landmark op-ed declaring he was moving his personal portfolio entirely into American stocks. His core argument: be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

Marks argues that consensus views are already reflected in asset prices, meaning superior returns can only be achieved by diverging from the crowd and being right.

Marks advises investors to acknowledge current market conditions—even if they are unattractive—and avoid reaching for returns when the environment is poor.

Marks explains the pitfalls of relying solely on Internal Rate of Return, advocating for a focus on total capital appreciation and realized cash returns.

A foundational look at risk, defining it as the probability of loss and arguing that the greatest risk comes from high prices and excessive optimism.

Achieving greatness requires non-consensus behavior and the courage to be lonely, as benchmark-hugging ensures only average results at best.

This memo explores the relationship between return targets and risk, warning that seeking high absolute returns often leads to unrecognized risk exposure.

Marks discusses the role of luck and alternative histories, emphasizing that investment decisions should be judged by process rather than just outcomes.

Reflecting on Oaktree's first decade, Marks emphasizes the importance of a consistent investment philosophy centered on risk control. He argues that avoiding losers is more important than finding winners for long-term success.

Marks examines the explosion of the hedge fund industry, warning that increased competition and massive capital inflows will lead to lower returns. He questions the sustainability of high fees in an increasingly crowded market.

This memo advocates for a balanced approach to investing, avoiding the extremes of both reckless aggression and paralyzing caution. Marks emphasizes the need for a middle ground that prioritizes risk management while remaining invested.

Marks addresses the responsibilities of fiduciaries and investment committees. He argues that stewards of capital must focus on long-term goals and resist the pressure to follow short-term market trends or peer performance.

Marks discusses the conflict of interest between investment managers and their clients. He argues that many managers prioritize asset gathering and fee generation over delivering superior risk-adjusted returns for their investors.

Marks emphasizes the importance of having a clear investment strategy that accounts for market cycles. He discusses the transition from a defensive posture to a more opportunistic one as market conditions evolve.

Marks introduces the concept of 'second-level thinking' and argues that successful investing requires a multidimensional approach focusing on risk control rather than just seeking returns.

Marks critiques the mutual fund industry for its focus on relative performance and closet indexing. He argues that true value is added through idiosyncratic risk-taking and a willingness to be different from the crowd.

This memo defines the 'realist' investor as one who avoids the emotional extremes of the market, focusing instead on objective analysis and disciplined risk management.

This memo explores the definitions of alpha and beta, arguing that true investment skill is the ability to generate superior returns without commensurate risk.

A collection of observations on market efficiency and the role of luck, emphasizing the necessity of a contrarian mindset during periods of extreme market sentiment.

Marks discusses the unpredictability of macro events and the importance of building portfolios that can withstand black swan events rather than relying on forecasts.

Marks distinguishes between investing based on fundamental value and speculating on price movements. He argues that true investors focus on the underlying asset's cash flow rather than short-term market sentiment.

Marks revisits the futility of macro forecasting, arguing that while everyone wants to know the future, few can predict it accurately. Success comes from understanding the present rather than guessing the future.

Marks discusses the importance of consistency and risk control over swinging for the fences. He advocates for a 'tennis-like' approach where avoiding errors is more important than hitting winners.

Marks outlines his philosophy for finding bargains by looking where others aren't. He emphasizes the need for a contrarian mindset and the discipline to wait for the right price.

Marks defines risk not as volatility, but as the probability of losing money. He argues that risk management is the most important element of successful long-term investing.

Marks critiques the industry's reliance on economic forecasts. He suggests that since macro events are unpredictable, investors should focus on micro-level analysis and margin of safety.

Using the convertible bond market as a case study, Marks explains how supply and demand imbalances create investment opportunities. He argues that technical factors often outweigh fundamentals in the short term.

Marks argues that superior long-term performance is best achieved through consistency and the avoidance of losers rather than the pursuit of occasional winners. He emphasizes that a defensive approach minimizes errors, leading to outperformance over full market cycles.