The Library
19 letters
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2025 Memo
Cockroaches in the Coal Mine
Marks discusses how early signs of distress in credit markets often signal broader systemic issues. He urges investors to look for hidden risks that others ignore during periods of high complacency.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2023 Memo
Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank
Marks analyzes the Silicon Valley Bank collapse as a classic bank run exacerbated by digital speed and interest rate risk. He emphasizes that maturity transformation remains inherently fragile when trust evaporates and liquidity dries up.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2020 Memo
Which Way Now?
Written during the initial market crash, Marks evaluates the extreme panic and the potential for long-term value creation for those with the stomach to stay invested.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2020 Memo
Latest Update
Marks addresses the rapid market collapse and recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the unprecedented nature of the economic shutdown and the massive scale of government intervention as key drivers of market behavior.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2015 Memo
Liquidity
Marks warns that liquidity is often ephemeral, disappearing exactly when investors need it most, and should not be relied upon as a safety net.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2011 Memo
What's Behind the Downturn?
Marks analyzes the 2011 market decline, attributing it to a combination of the European sovereign debt crisis, sluggish US growth, and a general loss of investor confidence in policymakers.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2010 Memo
It's Greek to Me
Marks analyzes the structural flaws of the Eurozone revealed by the Greek debt crisis, warning that sovereign debt is not risk-free and that bailouts carry significant moral hazard.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2009 Memo
So Much That's False and Nutty
This memo critiques the illogical behavior and false narratives that emerged during the financial crisis, highlighting how emotional reactions often override rational financial analysis during periods of extreme market stress.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2009 Memo
Will It Work?
Marks evaluates the government's intervention efforts during the Great Recession, questioning whether massive stimulus and bailouts can truly fix structural economic issues or merely delay the inevitable market clearing.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2008 Memo
The Limits to Negativism
Written during the depths of the 2008 crisis, Marks argues that when everyone is convinced the world is ending, the potential for profit is at its highest because prices reflect total despair.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2008 Memo
Volatility + Leverage = Dynamite
Marks warns about the lethal combination of high leverage and market volatility, explaining how forced liquidations during a crisis can destroy even fundamentally sound investment strategies that lack sufficient liquidity.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2008 Memo
What Worries Me
Marks argues that systemic risk is heightened by excessive leverage and financial complexity, warning of a potential liquidity crisis and the dangers of interconnected financial institutions.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2008 Memo
The Tide Goes Out
Explains how the withdrawal of liquidity reveals the dangers of excessive leverage and poor underwriting standards that were hidden during the preceding boom.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2008 Memo
Whodunit
Analyzes the collective failure of market participants to manage risk, identifying how lenders, rating agencies, and investors contributed to the subprime mortgage collapse.
Seth Klarman Baupost Group 2008 Annual Letter
The Lessons of 2008: Worst Crisis, Best Opportunity
In the aftermath of the worst financial crisis in 75 years, Klarman reflects on how Baupost's conservative positioning and margin-of-safety discipline allowed them not just to survive but to find extraordinary opportunities while others were forced to sell.
Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway 2008 Op-Ed
Buy American. I Am.
In the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, Buffett published a landmark op-ed declaring he was moving his personal portfolio entirely into American stocks. His core argument: be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2001 Memo
What Lies Ahead?
Written after the 9/11 attacks, Marks discusses the shift in the global paradigm and the importance of defensive positioning during periods of extreme exogenous shocks.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 2001 Memo
Notes from New York
Marks reflects on the post-9/11 environment, emphasizing the shift from optimism to fear and the importance of assessing risk when markets are paralyzed by uncertainty.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital 1998 Memo
Genius Isn't Enough
Following the LTCM crisis, Marks argues that intelligence and sophisticated models cannot replace common sense and a deep understanding of market cycles and risk.