patrickcollison.com, 2019
Economists broadly agree that the rate of economic growth in developed nations has been declining for decades. This is typically met with a resigned shrug—as though declining growth is a natural consequence of maturity.
This attitude is deeply mistaken. The stakes of economic growth are so high that even small changes in the rate matter enormously for human welfare.
Consider: at 2% annual growth, GDP doubles every 35 years. At 1%, it doubles every 70 years. Over a century, the difference between these two rates results in an economy that is four times larger.
These are not abstract numbers. They translate directly into lifespan, infant mortality, education, and the resources available to address existential challenges like climate change.
One of the most dangerous ideas in modern economic thinking is that growth simply happens—that it's the natural order of things. History tells us otherwise.
The entire period of sustained economic growth—the last ~250 years—is an aberration in human history. For thousands of years prior, per-capita income was essentially flat. Growth is a modern invention, and there is no guarantee it continues.
What caused it to begin?
Each of these is fragile. Each can be eroded.
If faster growth is desirable—and I believe the case is overwhelming—then we should treat it as a problem to be solved, not a fact of nature to be accepted.
Questions we should be asking:
The companies and countries that figure out how to sustain growth will define the next century. Those that don't will slowly fall behind. Growth is not a luxury. It is the prerequisite for everything else we care about.